Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with even the basics. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two essays that aim for impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a feckless official who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has got valuable insights to gain from the alternative positions."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
